Regime
Late-cycle momentum with sector rotation
Bias
Selectively bullish on AI/tech leaders, bearish on laggards
Best Setups
Breakout stocks making new highs (TSLA), commodity momentum (Oil/Gold), crypto strength (BTC/XRP)
Avoid
Healthcare, Energy stocks (not commodities), Traditional retail
high
4-6 weeks
3-4%
Breaking out to new 52-week highs with massive volume. +3.06% today, approaching $491.5 high. Classic momentum breakout with Trump administration tailwinds
Catalyst: Regulatory tailwinds, FSD progress, energy storage demand
Entry
$490-492 on breakout above $491.5 with volume
Invalidation: Close below $475 or failed breakout with declining volume
medium
3-4 weeks
2-3%
Strong +1.49% move today, showing relative strength vs tech. Still 18% below 52-week high - room to run on AI momentum
Catalyst: AI investments paying off, Reality Labs improvements, strong ad revenue
Entry
$660-665 on continued strength
Invalidation: Break below $640 or weak earnings guidance
high
2-3 weeks
2-3%
+2.02% today with strong volume, AI cloud infrastructure play. Still 45% below 52-week high - major catch-up potential
Catalyst: Cloud infrastructure demand, AI partnerships, database migration
Entry
$190-192 on momentum continuation
Invalidation: Break below $180 support
medium
4-6 weeks
1-2%
Weak -0.53% today, showing relative weakness. Lost AI race, struggling with competition from NVDA/AMD
Catalyst: Market share loss, manufacturing delays, weak guidance
Entry
$37.00-36.80 on further weakness
Invalidation: Break above $39.50 or surprise turnaround news
medium
6-8 weeks
1-2%
-0.93% today, 25% below highs, showing persistent weakness. AI disruption concerns in creative software
Catalyst: AI competition, subscription growth slowdown, margin pressure
Entry
$345-340 on continued weakness
Invalidation: Break above $360 or AI strategy pivot
medium
GLD ETF
2-3 months
Breaking to new highs at $4373, +0.36% today. Fed dovish pivot, geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness
Entry
$4350-4360 on pullback
Key Levels: Resistance at $4400, support at $4300
high
USO ETF or CL futures
4-6 weeks
+2.39% today, strong momentum from lows. Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ cuts, winter demand
Entry
$57-58 on momentum continuation
Key Levels: $60 resistance, $55 support
medium
3-4 weeks
3-4%
Holding above $86K, institutional adoption continuing. Trump administration crypto-friendly
On-Chain Signal: ETF flows positive, long-term holder accumulation
Entry
$86,000-87,000 on dips
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2%
+1.22% today showing strength. Regulatory clarity improving, institutional adoption growing
On-Chain Signal: Whale accumulation, exchange outflows
Entry
$1.85-1.90 on pullback
medium
2-3 weeks
1-2%
Weak relative performance, -8.7% weekly. Ecosystem challenges, competition from other L1s
On-Chain Signal: TVL declining, validator issues