Regime
MOMENTUM/GROWTH LEADERSHIP - Clear sector rotation into semiconductors and AI infrastructure
Bias
Bullish on tech breakouts, selective long bias with momentum confirmation required
Best Setups
Semiconductor breakouts (AMD/NVDA), momentum names breaking to new highs, relative strength plays
Avoid
Avoid laggards, failed breakouts, and sideways consolidations. Stay away from catching falling knives
high
2-4 weeks
4-5% portfolio
Massive 6.15% surge on heavy volume - classic momentum breakout. Breaking above $200 resistance with conviction after sustained uptrend from $76 lows
Catalyst: AI chip demand acceleration, potential data center wins, institutional accumulation on volume spike
Entry
$213.50 on any pullback to breakout level
Target
$250 (next major resistance)
Stop
$198 (below breakout zone)
Invalidation: Close below $200 breaks the breakout pattern
high
3-6 weeks
6-8% portfolio
3.93% gap up on massive 325M volume - institutional buying frenzy. Still well below $212 highs with room to run
Catalyst: AI infrastructure spending, data center demand, earnings momentum building
Entry
$181-183 range on any morning dip
Target
$210 (retest of highs)
Invalidation: Gap fill below $174 breaks momentum structure
medium
4-8 weeks
3-4% portfolio
Explosive 6.63% breakout move - strongest single day in months. Cloud momentum accelerating
Catalyst: Database modernization cycle, cloud migration acceleration, AI infrastructure plays
Entry
$192-195 on any consolidation
Target
$220 (measured move from base)
Stop
$175 (below breakout zone)
Invalidation: Break below $180 negates breakout thesis
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3% portfolio
Failed at resistance, showing relative weakness vs QQQ. Down -0.85% while tech rallies hard
Catalyst: Regulatory overhang, metaverse spending concerns, relative underperformance
Entry
$655-660 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$600 (major support zone)
Stop
$680 (above recent highs)
Invalidation: Break above $680 shows renewed strength
high
GLD ETF or GC futures
1-3 months
Breaking out to new highs at $4,443 - momentum accelerating. Central bank buying, dollar weakness setup
Entry
$4,420-4,430 on any minor pullback
Target
$4,600 (measured move)
Stop
$4,350 (below breakout)
Key Levels: Support: $4,350, Resistance: $4,500
medium
USO ETF or CL futures
6-10 weeks
1.89% bounce off $55 lows, showing momentum shift. Geopolitical tensions, supply concerns building
Entry
$57-58 on current levels
Target
$68 (next resistance)
Stop
$54 (break of recent lows)
Key Levels: Critical support: $55, Breakout: $62
medium
Direct BTC or MSTR stock
2-6 months
Holding $88-90k range well, institutional accumulation visible. Trump administration crypto-friendly stance
Entry
$89,000-90,000 current levels
Target
$105,000 (next major resistance)
Stop
$82,000 (range breakdown)
Key Levels: Support: $85k, Resistance: $95k then $105k
medium
2-4 months
4-6%
Consolidating in $88-92k range after pullback from highs. Institutional flows still positive, regulatory clarity improving
On-Chain Signal: Long-term holder accumulation, exchange outflows increasing
medium
6-10 weeks
3-4%
Showing relative strength vs BTC, 1.67% daily gain. ETF flows improving, staking yields attractive
On-Chain Signal: Decreasing exchange reserves, increasing staking participation
Entry
$3,040-3,080 current range
Target
$3,800 (next major resistance)
Stop
$2,800 (range breakdown)
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2%
Down -14.6% weekly, momentum breaking. High-beta altcoin losing steam as market rotates to majors
On-Chain Signal: Increasing sell pressure, whale distribution patterns
Entry
$25-26 on any bounce
Target
$18 (next support)
Stop
$30 (above recent resistance)