Regime
Late cycle momentum with selective strength in materials/commodities and AI plays
Bias
Neutral to slightly bullish but increasingly selective
Best Setups
Breakouts in NVDA, materials, commodities. Breakdowns in overextended names like TSLA
Avoid
Broad tech (except AI leaders), financials showing relative weakness
high
2-4 weeks
3-5%
NVDA breaking out after consolidation, massive volume surge (138M vs avg ~50M), showing relative strength vs semis
Catalyst: Q4 earnings momentum building, AI infrastructure demand, breaking above recent resistance
Entry
$191-192 on any pullback or momentum continuation
Target
$212 (prior high retest)
Stop
$185 (below breakout support)
Invalidation: Volume dies, fails to hold $185, broader tech selloff
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Materials ETF hitting new 52-week highs with strong volume, commodity reflation trade accelerating
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending, commodity supercycle narrative, sector rotation
Entry
$46.15-46.30 on any small pullback
Invalidation: Breaks below $45, economic slowdown fears
medium
2-3 weeks
2%
Failed to break $500, heavy selling on volume, relative weakness vs NVDA and tech leaders
Catalyst: Profit taking after massive run, valuation concerns, competition heating up
Entry
$472-475 on any bounce
Invalidation: Breaks back above $485 with volume, new product announcement
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3%
Financials showing relative weakness, failed at 52-week highs, heavy volume selling
Catalyst: Yield curve concerns, banking stress, rotation out of financials
Entry
$55.50-55.70 on any bounce
Invalidation: Breaks above $56.20, banking sector catalyst
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2%
Zcash up 5.3% today, momentum building, privacy coin narrative heating up
On-Chain Signal: Increased transaction volume, privacy regulations driving demand
Entry
$465-470 on pullback
medium
3-6 weeks
2%
Hyperliquid showing strength, up 2% today while most crypto down, DeFi narrative accelerating
On-Chain Signal: TVL growing, institutional DeFi adoption
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3%
Bitcoin failed at $95k, showing relative weakness, institutional selling pressure
On-Chain Signal: Exchange inflows increasing, long liquidations building
Entry
$88000-88500 on any bounce