Regime
Late cycle momentum environment with sector rotation
Bias
Selective bullish - favor materials, tech leaders, avoid laggards
Best Setups
Breakouts to new highs with volume (NVDA, XLB, Gold), momentum continuation plays
Avoid
Utilities showing weakness, traditional value traps without momentum
high
2-4 weeks
8% of portfolio
Strongest relative strength in tech, +1.02% while tech flat. Volume surge 138M vs avg 50M confirms institutional buying. Breaking above $190 resistance after 3-week consolidation
Catalyst: Q4 earnings runup, AI infrastructure spend continuing, potential guidance raise
Entry
$191+ on break above yesterday's high with volume
Target
$210 (prior 52-week high)
Stop
$185 (below consolidation low)
Invalidation: Break below $185 or tech sector broad weakness
medium
3-6 weeks
5% of portfolio
Failed at 52-week high $55.89, now showing weakness. Banks vulnerable to yield curve flattening, end of rate hike cycle headwinds
Catalyst: Banking stress, loan loss provisions, net interest margin compression
Entry
$55.50 on break below $55.60 support
Invalidation: Break above $56.20 or banking strength emerges
high
6-10 weeks
6% of portfolio
Materials breaking out to new 52-week highs at $46.43. Strong +0.59% move with volume confirmation. Commodity supercycle thesis intact
Catalyst: China reopening demand, infrastructure spending, supply constraints
Entry
$46.20+ on pullback to breakout level
Invalidation: Break below $44.80 or commodity demand destruction
medium
4-8 weeks
4% of portfolio
Failed at $498 resistance, now breaking down -2.1% on massive volume 58M. Momentum clearly shifted bearish, lower highs pattern
Catalyst: Delivery concerns, competition intensifying, valuation concerns
Entry
$470 on break below current support
Invalidation: Reclaim above $485 with conviction
medium
4-6 weeks
5% of portfolio
Stabilizing above $87K after recent weakness. Institutional adoption continuing, spot ETF inflows resuming
On-Chain Signal: Long-term holder accumulation continuing, exchange outflows positive
Entry
$88,000+ on break above resistance
high
3-6 weeks
3% of portfolio (high risk)
Massive +9.87% breakout, trending #1 on social. Privacy coins gaining attention, technical breakout from consolidation
On-Chain Signal: Increased transaction volume, developer activity rising
Entry
$520+ on momentum continuation
medium
6-10 weeks
2% of portfolio
Strong +7.65% move, breaking out from oversold levels. Polkadot ecosystem development accelerating
On-Chain Signal: Parachain activity increasing, staking yields attractive
Entry
$1.92+ on pullback entry