Pure Trade Ideas
2025-12-29 06:35
Regime
Late-cycle bull market with AI momentum driving leadership
Bias
Cautiously bullish with momentum focus
Best Setups
AI/semiconductor breakouts, crypto momentum, materials strength
Avoid
Utilities showing weakness, Energy mixed signals, some mega-cap tech stalling
📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas
NVDA
LONG
high 2-4 weeks 3-5%
Breaking above $190 with massive volume (140M+). Strong relative strength vs semis. AI momentum continues into 2025
Catalyst: Q4 earnings approaching, AI infrastructure build-out accelerating
Entry
$191-193 on pullback to breakout level
Target
$210-212 (prior high retest)
Stop
$185 (below breakout)
R:R
3:1
Invalidation: Close below $185 or semis sector breakdown
INTC
LONG
medium 4-8 weeks 2-3%
Massive volume breakout from $17-36 base. Strong relative strength vs AMD. Potential turnaround story gaining traction
Catalyst: Foundry strategy updates, potential government support
Entry
$36.50-37.00
Target
$42-44 (52-week high area)
Stop
$34.50
R:R
2.5:1
Invalidation: Break below $34 invalidates base breakout
NFLX
LONG
medium 3-6 weeks 2%
Clean breakout from $82-94 range with strong volume. Password sharing crackdown driving subscriber growth
Catalyst: Q4 subscriber numbers, ad tier adoption
Entry
$95-96
Target
$110-115
Stop
$91
R:R
3:1
Invalidation: Back below $91 range resistance becomes resistance again
META
SHORT
medium 4-6 weeks 2%
Failed to hold above $700, showing relative weakness vs QQQ. Heavy resistance at $800 area unlikely to break
Catalyst: Metaverse spending concerns, regulatory headwinds
Entry
$660-665 on bounce
Target
$580-600
Stop
$690
R:R
2.5:1
Invalidation: Strong close above $700
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

3 ideas
Bitcoin
LONG
high Spot BTC or MSTR 2-4 weeks
Strong bounce from $85k support, momentum building into year-end. ETF flows accelerating
Entry
$89,000-90,000
Target
$105,000-110,000
Stop
$84,000
R:R
3:1
Key Levels: Support at $85k, resistance at $100k psychological
Crude Oil
LONG
medium USO ETF or CL futures 4-8 weeks
Breaking above $57 resistance, geopolitical tensions supporting. Demand expectations for 2025
Entry
$57.50-58.00
Target
$65-67
Stop
$55.50
R:R
3.5:1
Key Levels: $55 major support, $60 next resistance
Gold
SHORT
medium GLD puts or short futures 3-6 weeks
Failed at $4580 high, dollar strength resuming. Fed less dovish than expected
Entry
$4500-4520
Target
$4200-4300
Stop
$4600
R:R
2.5:1
Key Levels: $4400 major support level to watch
₿

Crypto Ideas

3 ideas
ETH
LONG
high 3-6 weeks 3%
Strong momentum above $3000, outperforming BTC. ETF flows improving, staking yields attractive
On-Chain Signal: ETH staking ratios increasing, deflationary pressure
Entry
$3030-3050
Target
$3600-3800
Stop
$2850
R:R
3:1
SOL
LONG
medium 4-8 weeks 2%
Holding $125+ support well, ecosystem growth accelerating. Memecoin mania benefits SOL
On-Chain Signal: DEX volume increasing, developer activity strong
Entry
$127-130
Target
$160-180
Stop
$118
R:R
3:1
ZEC
LONG
speculative 2-4 weeks 1%
Privacy coin rally gaining momentum, up 22% this week. Technical breakout in progress
On-Chain Signal: Shielded transaction volume increasing
Entry
$535-545
Target
$700-800
Stop
$480
R:R
3:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
NVDA
high
Long Call | $200 | January 31, 2025
Leverage on momentum breakout, earnings catalyst approaching
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$8-12)
Max Reward
Unlimited above $212
Breakeven
$208-212
Ideal Scenario: Gap up through $200 on earnings beat
SPY
medium
Put Spread | 690/680 Put Spread | January 17, 2025
Market showing some fatigue near highs, hedging overextension
Max Risk
$4-5 per spread
Max Reward
$6-7 per spread
Breakeven
$685-686
Ideal Scenario: Market pulls back to 680 level by expiry
⚖️

Pairs Trades

2 pairs
high 1:3 (dollar weighted) 4-8 weeks
LONG
NVDA
vs
SHORT
AMD
NVDA showing superior relative strength and momentum. AMD lagging despite sector strength
Entry Spread
Current spread favoring NVDA outperformance
Target Spread
NVDA outperforms by 15-20%
Stop Spread
If AMD starts significantly outperforming
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 6-12 weeks
LONG
XLB
vs
SHORT
XLE
Materials breaking to new highs while Energy showing relative weakness
Entry Spread
XLB $46+ vs XLE sub $44.50
Target Spread
XLB outperforms by 8-10%
Stop Spread
Energy starts outperforming materials
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 TSLA
Broken momentum after failing $500. High volatility without clear direction
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' after big drop but trend is broken
🚫 AAPL
Stalled momentum near 52-week highs, showing relative weakness vs tech
The Trap: Brand loyalty doesn't translate to stock momentum
🚫 ORCL
Massive gap down from $345 high still not filled, overhead supply
The Trap: AI narrative intact but technical damage severe