Pure Trade Ideas
2025-12-31 06:33
Regime
Year-end positioning with selective rotation. Risk-on but stock-specific
Bias
Neutral to slightly bullish with high dispersion
Best Setups
Individual stock momentum plays (META), crypto continuation, energy relative strength
Avoid
Avoid anything in consolidation or showing indecision. Trade what's moving.
📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas
META
LONG
high 4-6 weeks 3-5% of portfolio
Breaking above $665 resistance with strong relative strength vs QQQ. Up 1.1% while tech is flat - showing leadership
Catalyst: Year-end institutional positioning and continued AI momentum into 2025
Entry
$666-668 on pullback or immediate at $666
Target
$720 (next major resistance)
Stop
$645 (below 20-day MA)
R:R
2.7:1
Invalidation: Break below $645 or tech sector reversal
INTC
LONG
medium 2-3 weeks 2-3% of portfolio
Up 1.7% with massive volume (59M vs 15-30M avg). Potential turnaround story getting traction
Catalyst: Year-end window dressing and potential M&A rumors
Entry
$37.50-38.00 range
Target
$42 (approaching 52-week high)
Stop
$35.50
R:R
2.25:1
Invalidation: Volume drops off or semiconductor weakness
CRM
SHORT
medium 3-4 weeks 2% of portfolio
Massive underperformance - down from $367 highs to $266. Weak relative strength vs sector
Catalyst: Software selling pressure and valuation concerns
Entry
$264-266 on any bounce
Target
$240 (next support)
Stop
$275
R:R
2.4:1
Invalidation: Break above $275 with volume
NFLX
SHORT
high 2-4 weeks 3% of portfolio
Brutal 30% drop from highs ($134 to $94). Breaking support with high volume - momentum clearly broken
Catalyst: Continued streaming competition and subscriber growth concerns
Entry
$92-94 on any dead cat bounce
Target
$82 (recent lows)
Stop
$98
R:R
3:1
Invalidation: Reclaim $98 with conviction
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas
Gold
SHORT
medium GLD ETF or Futures 4-6 weeks
Down 1.6% today, breaking below key support at $2630/oz. Dollar strength and rate environment headwinds
Entry
$2615-2620/oz area
Target
$2550/oz
Stop
$2650/oz
R:R
2.2:1
Key Levels: Support: $2550, Resistance: $2650, $2680
Energy/Oil
LONG
medium XLE ETF 3-5 weeks
XLE up 0.76% showing relative strength. Oil holding above $57 support, geopolitical premium intact
Entry
$45.20-45.50 on XLE
Target
$47.50 (approaching highs)
Stop
$44.20
R:R
2.3:1
Key Levels: XLE: Support $44.20, Resistance $47.50
₿

Crypto Ideas

3 ideas
BTC
LONG
high 2-4 weeks 5-7% of portfolio
Up 1.33% today, holding above $88K support. Year-end institutional buying and ETF flows continuing
On-Chain Signal: ETF inflows remain strong, institutional accumulation
Entry
$87,500-88,500 range
Target
$95,000
Stop
$85,000
R:R
2.1:1
ETH
LONG
medium 3-5 weeks 3-4% of portfolio
Up 1.1% tracking BTC strength. ETH/BTC ratio stabilizing, staking yields attractive
On-Chain Signal: Staking demand increasing, network activity steady
Entry
$2,950-3,000
Target
$3,300
Stop
$2,800
R:R
1.75:1
ZEC
LONG
speculative 2-3 weeks 1-2% of portfolio
Up 27% in 7 days, momentum accelerating. Privacy coins getting renewed interest
On-Chain Signal: Transaction volume increasing, privacy premium expanding
Entry
$520-530 on pullback
Target
$650
Stop
$480
R:R
2.4:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
META
high
Long Call | $670 Jan 17 calls | Jan 17, 2025
Leverage on momentum breakout, earnings run potential
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$12-15)
Max Reward
Unlimited above breakeven
Breakeven
~$685
Ideal Scenario: META continues to $700+ into earnings
NFLX
medium
Put Spread | Long $90P, Short $85P | Jan 17, 2025
Defined risk way to play continued weakness
Max Risk
Net premium (~$2.50)
Max Reward
$2.50 (5-point spread minus premium)
Breakeven
$87.50
Ideal Scenario: NFLX continues decline to $85 or below
⚖️

Pairs Trades

2 pairs
high 1:1 dollar weighted 4-6 weeks
LONG
META
vs
SHORT
CRM
META showing leadership while CRM lagging badly. Relative strength divergence accelerating
Entry Spread
META trading 2.5x CRM multiple
Target Spread
META 2.8x CRM
Stop Spread
META 2.3x CRM
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 3-4 weeks
LONG
XLE
vs
SHORT
XLU
Energy showing relative strength vs defensive utilities. Risk-on rotation continuing
Entry Spread
XLE/XLU ratio at 1.05
Target Spread
1.12 ratio
Stop Spread
1.02 ratio
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 AAPL
Stuck in no-man's land. Down from $288 highs but not breaking down decisively
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' vs highs but showing no momentum either way
🚫 AMZN
Massive range between $258 high and current $232. No clear directional bias
The Trap: E-commerce narrative but stock going nowhere
🚫 NVDA
Down from $212 highs, sitting at $187 with no clear catalyst near-term
The Trap: AI story intact but stock momentum broken