Regime
Risk-off in equities but selective strength in commodities/crypto. Tech leading decline
Bias
Cautiously bearish on mega-cap tech, bullish on hard assets
Best Setups
Gold continuation, crypto breakouts, and shorting broken tech names
Avoid
Stay away from anything in consolidation - need clear directional moves
medium
4-8 weeks
2-3%
Breaking down with volume, showing extreme weakness vs semis. Trading at $36.90 near 52-week lows with momentum clearly broken
Catalyst: Continued market share loss to NVDA/AMD, potential guidance cuts, macro headwinds for PC market
Entry
$37.00 or lower on any bounce
Invalidation: Break above $40 with volume or surprise earnings beat
medium
3-6 weeks
2%
Failed at $450 level, showing relative weakness. Down -1% while crypto rallies. Breaking key support levels
Catalyst: Delivery numbers disappointment, competition in EV space, valuation concerns
Entry
$445-450 on any bounce
Invalidation: Strong delivery beat or major FSD breakthrough announcement
speculative
6-10 weeks
1.5%
Massive gap down from highs at $345 to $195. Momentum completely broken, showing distribution
Catalyst: Cloud competition intensifying, AI hype fading, expensive valuation catching up
Invalidation: Major cloud deal wins or AI partnership announcement
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2%
Explosive +8.7% move today with high momentum. Leading meme coin showing strength
On-Chain Signal: High volume spike, social sentiment turning positive
medium
4-6 weeks
2%
Monster +10.4% day, breaking out of consolidation. Strong momentum with institutional backing
On-Chain Signal: Developer activity increasing, subnet launches accelerating
high
6-8 weeks
3%
Up +6.6% with strong trend continuation. Breaking above key resistance levels
On-Chain Signal: TVL growing rapidly, ecosystem expansion accelerating