Regime
Mixed momentum - industrials/semis showing strength while mega-cap tech consolidating
Bias
Cautiously bullish with sector rotation theme
Best Setups
Industrial breakouts, semiconductor catch-up plays, select crypto momentum
Avoid
Mega-cap tech on weakness, consumer discretionary, streaming/content
high
2-4 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Classic momentum breakout - massive +6.7% surge on 93M volume, approaching 52-week high of $44.02. Semi sector showing life, relative strength vs AMD/NVDA decline
Catalyst: Potential AI chip partnership news, sector rotation into value semis, earnings run-up
Entry
$39.50 on pullback or $40.50 breakout above today's high
Target
$44.00 (52-week high test)
Invalidation: Break below $37 or semiconductor sector weakness
medium
2-3 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Explosive +4.3% move on 36M volume, strong relative strength. AI momentum continuing, catching up to NVDA
Catalyst: CES 2025 announcements, AI chip demand surge
Entry
$223-225 on any morning dip
Invalidation: Break below $215 or tech selloff continuation
high
1-2 months
4% of portfolio
Industrials ETF hitting new 52-week highs at $158.46, strong +1.84% move. Infrastructure/manufacturing cycle beginning
Catalyst: Q1 earnings season setup, infrastructure spending, manufacturing rebound
Entry
$158.00 on any pullback
Invalidation: Break below $154 or economic data deterioration
medium
2-4 weeks
2% of portfolio
Massive -4.26% breakdown from $367 highs, enterprise software under pressure, weak relative performance
Catalyst: Cloud spending cuts, earnings disappointments in sector
Entry
$252-254 on any bounce
Invalidation: Break above $265 or strong cloud earnings
medium
USO ETF or CL futures
4-6 weeks
Oil holding above $57 support, geopolitical tensions, seasonal refinery maintenance demand
Key Levels: Support: $55, Resistance: $60, $65
speculative
GLD ETF or GC futures
2-3 weeks
Failed to hold $4400+ levels, dollar strength, reduced safe haven demand
Key Levels: Resistance: $4400, Support: $4200, $4000
speculative
1-2 weeks
1% of portfolio
Massive +18.6% breakout, meme coin mania returning, trending #2 on CoinGecko
On-Chain Signal: Whale accumulation, social sentiment spike
Entry
$0.0000061-0.0000062
Target
$0.0000075-0.000008
medium
2-4 weeks
2% of portfolio
+12.3% surge, strong momentum in L1 space, developer activity increasing
On-Chain Signal: TVL growth, new partnerships
high
3-5 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Breaking above $3100, +2.95% momentum, institutional flows returning to ETH ETFs
On-Chain Signal: ETF inflows, reduced exchange supply