Regime
Risk-off rotation from tech to defensive sectors, commodity weakness except energy
Bias
Bearish on growth/tech, neutral to bullish on defensive/value sectors
Best Setups
Energy sector longs, tech sector shorts, defensive sector rotations
Avoid
Most commodities except oil, high-beta growth names without clear momentum
medium
2-4 weeks
3-4%
Energy sector showing relative strength, XLE breaking near 52-week highs with volume confirmation. Oil holding support while general market weak.
Catalyst: Energy earnings season, geopolitical tensions supporting oil prices
Entry
51.10 on break above Friday high
Invalidation: Break below $50 or oil collapse below $62
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Consumer staples near 52-week highs showing defensive strength. Strong relative performance vs SPY in current selloff.
Catalyst: Flight to quality defensive plays, strong earnings from staples
Entry
83.60 on break to new highs
Invalidation: Break below 82.00 or market euphoria returns
speculative
2-3 weeks
2%
Big tech showing relative weakness, META down 3% on heavy volume. Breaking below key support levels.
Catalyst: Tech sector rotation, AI spending concerns, regulatory pressure
Entry
710 on break below today's low
Invalidation: Reclaim above $740 or broader tech recovery
high
3-4 weeks
3%
Semiconductor showing major weakness, down 6% on high volume. Breaking key support with poor relative strength vs NVDA.
Catalyst: Earnings disappointment, China concerns, AI competition
Invalidation: Reclaim above $255 or sector-wide recovery
high
2-3 weeks
3%
Bitcoin breaking down from major resistance, down 6% on high volume. Risk-off sentiment hurting all crypto.
On-Chain Signal: Long liquidations accelerating, funding rates turning negative
Entry
$78,000 on any bounce
high
2-4 weeks
2%
Ethereum showing even worse performance than BTC, down 10% with poor relative strength. Breaking key support.
On-Chain Signal: ETH/BTC ratio breaking down, DeFi TVL declining
speculative
2-3 weeks
1%
Hyperliquid showing relative strength up 33% weekly while market bleeds. New project with momentum.
On-Chain Signal: Strong DEX volume growth, token utility increasing
Long Put Spread | Buy $140 Put / Sell $135 Put | March 21, 2026
Tech sector weakness likely to continue, spread limits downside risk while capturing breakdown
Max Reward
$300 per spread
Ideal Scenario: XLK continues declining below $135 by expiration
Long Straddle | $430 | February 21, 2026
TSLA showing high volatility, big move expected with earnings approaching. Straddle captures either direction.
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$35)
Ideal Scenario: Large move above $465 or below $395 by expiration