Regime
Sector rotation in progress - Energy/Materials leading, Tech lagging
Bias
Neutral to slightly bearish - selective opportunities in commodity sectors
Best Setups
Energy breakouts, Semiconductor breakdowns, Commodity strength
Avoid
Large cap tech showing distribution, growth stocks under pressure
high
4-8 weeks
3-5%
Breaking out to new 52-week highs at $52.83 vs high of $52.96. Energy leading all sectors today +2.2%. Oil services momentum building.
Catalyst: Oil price stability above $60, energy infrastructure spending, seasonal refinery demand
Entry
$52.85 on break above today's high
Invalidation: Break below $51.00 or oil collapse below $58
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Materials at new highs $51.89 vs $52.02. Outperforming market with +2.35% today. Industrial commodity strength.
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending, copper demand, housing recovery
Entry
$52.10 on new high break
Invalidation: Break below $50.00 or manufacturing data collapse
high
2-4 weeks
2-4%
Massive breakdown -17.3% on huge volume. Breaking major support levels. Relative weakness vs NVDA and sector.
Catalyst: Earnings disappointment, AI chip competition, margin pressure
Entry
$198.50 on any bounce to resistance
Invalidation: Reclaim above $220 or sector rotation back to semis
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Heavy selling -5.2% breaking below $150 support. Failed at highs, showing relative weakness vs tech.
Catalyst: Cloud competition intensifying, guidance concerns, valuation stretched
Entry
$145.00 on bounce to resistance
Invalidation: Reclaim above $160 with volume
medium
6-10 weeks
2-4%
Financials showing relative strength +0.8% while tech weak. Near 52-week high of $56.52.
Catalyst: Rising rates environment, strong lending, regulatory clarity
Entry
$54.20 on pullback to support
Invalidation: Break below $52.00 or rate cut expectations
high
2-6 weeks
3-5%
Breaking major support at $70K. -7.6% today with massive volume. Failed at $126K highs, showing distribution.
On-Chain Signal: Large holder distribution, exchange inflows increasing
Entry
$69,500 on any bounce to resistance
high
2-6 weeks
2-4%
Even weaker than BTC -8.5%. Breaking below $2100 support with conviction. Relative weakness pattern.
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL declining, staking rewards pressured
Entry
$2050 on bounce to resistance
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2%
One of few showing relative strength +5.7% weekly while market crashes. Low float, institutional backing.
On-Chain Signal: Low circulating supply, strong holder base