Regime
RISK-ON MOMENTUM - Tech leading with AI/Semi breakouts
Bias
BULLISH with sector rotation into AI/Infrastructure themes
Best Setups
AI breakouts (NVDA, AMD), Crypto momentum (BTC, ETH), Industrials at highs
Avoid
Defensive plays, anything in downtrends, low-momentum value traps
high
2-4 weeks
4-5% portfolio
Explosive +7.9% move with massive volume (223M vs normal ~50M). Breaking out of consolidation near $185. AI momentum continuing with strong relative strength vs semis
Catalyst: AI earnings cycle approaching, potential new AI chip announcements
Entry
$186-188 on any pullback or continuation above $185.50
Target
$210-215 (previous high retest)
Stop
$175 (below breakout zone)
Invalidation: Closes below $175 or AI sector rotation begins
high
3-6 weeks
3-4% portfolio
Monster +8.3% breakout on huge volume. Playing catch-up to NVDA. Breaking above $200 resistance with conviction
Catalyst: AI server chip demand, datacenter buildouts continuing
Entry
$208-212 on any morning dip or momentum continuation
Target
$240-250 (gap fill to previous highs)
Stop
$195 (below breakout)
Invalidation: Fails to hold $200 or semi sector weakness
medium
4-8 weeks
2-3% portfolio
Industrials making new 52-week highs at $173.39. Infrastructure spending theme with strong relative strength
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending, manufacturing reshoring trends
Entry
$173-175 on pullback or breakout continuation
Target
$185-190 (measured move)
Stop
$168 (below recent support)
Invalidation: Breaks below $165 or rotation out of cyclicals
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3% portfolio
Brutal -5.5% breakdown on massive volume. Breaking key $220 support with conviction. Weak relative strength vs market
Catalyst: Cloud competition intensifying, margin pressure concerns
Entry
$208-212 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$185-190 (next support zone)
Stop
$225 (above breakdown level)
Invalidation: Reclaims $225 or broad tech recovery
speculative
3-5 weeks
1-2% portfolio
Failed at resistance around $670, showing weakness vs other mega caps. Lower high formation developing
Catalyst: AI capex concerns, regulatory overhang, user growth questions
Entry
$655-665 on any bounce
Target
$600-620 (next support cluster)
Stop
$685 (above recent highs)
Invalidation: Breaks back above $680 or VR/AI catalyst
high
2-6 weeks
3-5% portfolio
Explosive +7.7% breakout reclaiming $70k. Massive volume spike confirms institutional buying. Breaking multi-week consolidation
On-Chain Signal: Exchange outflows increasing, long-term holder accumulation
Entry
$69500-71000 on any pullback
Target
$78000-82000 (previous resistance zone)
Stop
$66000 (below consolidation)
high
3-6 weeks
2-4% portfolio
+8.1% surge following BTC strength. Breaking above $2080 resistance. ETH/BTC ratio improving
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL stabilizing, staking rewards attractive
Entry
$2080-2120 on pullback or continuation
Target
$2400-2600 (major resistance)
Stop
$1950 (below breakout)
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3% portfolio
Strong +9.8% move but still well below highs. Ecosystem growth continuing with meme coin activity
On-Chain Signal: DEX volumes increasing, NFT activity picking up
Entry
$87-92 on continuation or slight pullback
Target
$110-120 (next resistance)
Stop
$80 (below recent lows)