Regime
Risk-on momentum favoring AI/tech leaders and energy breakouts
Bias
Selective bullish - momentum names working, laggards getting left behind
Best Setups
Earnings breakouts (ORCL), sector leadership (Energy), strong relative performance plays
Avoid
Consumer discretionary weakness, avoid financial sector rotation plays until XLF shows strength
high
2-4 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Monster 9.6% gap up on earnings with massive volume expansion (49M vs avg). Breaking out from consolidation near $145 resistance with authority. Relative strength leader in tech today.
Catalyst: Strong earnings beat + AI/cloud momentum continuing
Entry
$157-159 on any pullback or $160 breakout confirmation
Target
$175 (next resistance from 52-week range)
Stop
$149 (back below breakout level)
Invalidation: Close below $149 or tech sector rotation
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Strong 3.6% move with solid volume. Reclaiming $210+ after recent consolidation. Good relative strength vs broader tech weakness today.
Catalyst: Continued AI chip demand narrative
Entry
$217-220 on continuation
Target
$240 (halfway to 52-week high)
Stop
$205 (below recent support)
Invalidation: Break below $205 or NVDA weakness spillover
medium
4-6 weeks
2% of portfolio
Strong 2.4% move with good volume. Holding well above $650 support. Still 15% below 52-week highs offering runway.
Catalyst: AI investments paying off + strong user engagement
Entry
$680-685 on breakout above today's high
Target
$720 (next resistance level)
Stop
$650 (key support break)
Invalidation: Break below $650 or regulatory concerns
medium
2-4 weeks
2% of portfolio
Testing 52-week lows around $79. Weak relative performance vs tech. Breaking down from recent consolidation with volume.
Catalyst: Streaming competition pressure + subscriber growth concerns
Entry
$80-81 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$72 (next support level)
Stop
$85 (back above resistance)
Invalidation: Strong bounce above $85 or sector rotation
speculative
3-5 weeks
1-2% of portfolio
Near 52-week lows at $263. Weak chart pattern with lower highs. Underperforming tech sector significantly.
Catalyst: AI disruption to creative software + weak guidance
Entry
$268-270 on any bounce
Target
$245 (next support)
Stop
$275 (above resistance)
Invalidation: Break above $275 or AI partnership news
high
XLE ETF
4-8 weeks
XLE at new 52-week highs ($53.72) with strong momentum. Energy showing best relative strength today. Oil holding $64+ support.
Entry
$53.70-54.00 on continuation
Target
$58 (next resistance)
Stop
$51.50 (break of momentum)
Key Levels: Support at $51.50, resistance at $55-56
medium
GLD ETF or Gold Futures
3-6 weeks
Gold pulling back from highs, down -0.7% today. Dollar strength + higher rates pressure. Failed at $5586 resistance.
Entry
$5020-5040 on any bounce
Target
$4750 (next support)
Stop
$5150 (back above resistance)
Key Levels: Resistance $5150, support at $4750
high
BTC-USD or BITO ETF
2-4 weeks
BTC breaking down from $70K, down -2.3% today with heavy volume. Failed multiple times at $126K highs. Crypto showing broad weakness.
Entry
$68,500-69,500 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$62,000 (next major support)
Stop
$72,000 (back above resistance)
Key Levels: Key resistance $70K, major support $60K
high
2-4 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Failed at $126K highs multiple times. Breaking key $70K support with volume. Weekly trend turning bearish.
On-Chain Signal: Large holders reducing positions, exchange inflows increasing
Entry
$69,000-70,000 on bounce to resistance
Target
$60,000 (major support)
medium
3-5 weeks
2% of portfolio
Even weaker than BTC, down -3.3% vs BTC's -2.3%. Failed at $4950 highs, now testing $2000 support.
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL declining, ETH staking yields falling
Entry
$2050-2100 on any bounce
Target
$1800 (next support)
speculative
1-3 weeks
1% of portfolio
Down -7.8% today, showing relative weakness. Failed at $59 highs, now breaking $30 support.
On-Chain Signal: High token unlock schedule creating selling pressure
Target
$25 (next support)
Long Call | $165 | March 21, 2026
Leverage the momentum breakout. Earnings catalyst provided, now riding the trend higher.
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$800-1000)
Max Reward
Unlimited above $165 + premium
Ideal Scenario: ORCL continues to $175+ on AI/cloud momentum
Call Spread | Buy $54 Call, Sell $58 Call | April 18, 2026
Defined risk way to play energy momentum without unlimited downside
Max Risk
Net debit (~$150-200)
Max Reward
$400 spread width minus debit
Breakeven
$54 + net debit
Ideal Scenario: XLE moves to $58+ by expiration
Put Spread | Buy $80 Put, Sell $75 Put | March 21, 2026
Defined risk short play on continued weakness
Max Risk
Net debit (~$200)
Max Reward
$500 spread width minus debit
Breakeven
$80 - net debit
Ideal Scenario: NFLX breaks below $75 by expiration