Regime
Mixed/Choppy - Tech weakness, selective strength in energy/defensive
Bias
Neutral to slightly bearish - VIX rising, breadth deteriorating
Best Setups
Individual stock breakouts (TSLA, ORCL), commodity momentum, crypto shorts
Avoid
Mega-cap tech (except selective names), growth stocks without momentum
high
2-4 weeks
4-6%
Breaking above 420 resistance with massive volume (64M vs avg ~40M). +1.9% while tech selling off shows relative strength. Classic momentum breakout setup
Catalyst: Approaching 52-week high at 498.83, momentum algos will chase above 430
Entry
425.50 on pullback or 430 breakout
Target
465 (next major resistance)
Stop
410 (below prior resistance)
Invalidation: Close below 410 or broader EV sector weakness
medium
4-6 weeks
3-4%
Up 2.1% on heavy volume while tech bleeding. Breaking out of 150-160 base. AI infrastructure play with momentum
Catalyst: Cloud earnings season, AI spending acceleration
Target
180 (next resistance cluster)
Stop
152 (below breakout)
Invalidation: Failed breakout below 155 or broader database sector rotation
medium
3-5 weeks
3%
Failed at 52-week low area (262.95). Down from 465 high - classic broken growth stock. No support until 240s
Catalyst: AI disruption fears, subscription model pressure
Entry
264-266 on any bounce
Target
240 (major support)
Stop
275 (above recent high)
Invalidation: Reclaim above 280 or AI partnership announcement
high
4-8 weeks
4%
Crashed -6.2% on massive volume. Breaking key 50 support after failed turnaround story. Semiconductor weakness accelerating
Catalyst: Manufacturing delays, AI chip competition, margin pressure
Entry
47.50 on any dead cat bounce
Target
38-40 (next major support)
Stop
52 (back above breakdown)
Invalidation: Above 52 or major foundry deal announcement
medium
GLD ETF or GC Futures
6-10 weeks
Breaking above 5050 with momentum. Dollar weakness, rate cut expectations building. Safe haven bid returning
Target
5300 (prior high retest)
Stop
4950 (below breakout)
Key Levels: Support: 5000, 4900 | Resistance: 5200, 5300
speculative
USO ETF or CL Futures
4-6 weeks
Breaking above 64 resistance, supply concerns building. Energy sector rotation potential
Target
70-72 (next resistance)
Stop
62 (below recent base)
Key Levels: Support: 62, 58 | Resistance: 68, 72
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3%
Failed at 69K, now breaking down through 67K support. -3% while stocks mixed shows crypto leading weakness
On-Chain Signal: Whale selling, reduced institutional flows
Entry
66500-67000 on any bounce
Target
62000 (next major support)
Stop
70000 (above recent high)
medium
3-5 weeks
2%
Breaking below 2000 psychological level, -2.9% showing relative weakness to BTC. Failed at 2020 resistance
On-Chain Signal: DeFi outflows, staking unlock pressure
Entry
1940-1960 on bounce
Target
1750-1800 (next support cluster)
Stop
2050 (above resistance)
high
2-4 weeks
3%
Massive breakdown from 293 high to 80. -4.4% today, no bounce at key levels. Momentum completely broken
On-Chain Signal: Ecosystem token selloffs, validator unstaking
Entry
80-82 on any relief rally
Target
65-70 (next support)
Stop
88 (above recent high)