Regime
Sector rotation in progress - Energy/Materials leading, Tech lagging
Bias
Selective bullish - favor momentum leaders, avoid laggards
Best Setups
Energy/Materials breakouts, Tech breakdown shorts
Avoid
Software/Cloud names showing relative weakness
high
4-8 weeks
3-4%
Energy sector breaking to new 52-week highs at $54.98 with strong relative strength. Oil momentum, strong volume confirmation at breakout
Catalyst: Oil price momentum continuing, energy earnings season approaching
Entry
$55.00 on break above $54.98 high
Invalidation: Break below $53.00 or oil reverses sharply
high
6-10 weeks
3%
Materials sector at new 52-week highs ($53.665), strong momentum with +1.34% today. Breaking out of consolidation
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending themes, commodity price strength
Entry
$53.70 on continuation above highs
Invalidation: Failed breakout back below $52.50
medium
3-6 weeks
2%
Strong bounce +2.46% today, massive volume 107M vs normal. Potential reversal from oversold conditions, relative strength emerging
Catalyst: AI/chip sector rotation, potential positive guidance
Entry
$48.50-49.00 on pullback or continuation
Invalidation: Break below $46.00 or sector weakness returns
high
2-4 weeks
2-3%
Breaking down -4.37% today, near 52-week lows at $181.81. Weak relative strength, heavy volume breakdown
Catalyst: Tech rotation away from high-valuation SaaS, earnings concerns
Entry
$184.00 on any bounce
Invalidation: Reclaim above $190 or tech sector reversal
medium
3-6 weeks
2%
At 52-week lows $79.23, breaking down -3.13% today. Heavy volume selling, weak relative strength vs market
Catalyst: Streaming competition intensifying, subscriber growth concerns
Entry
$80.00 on any bounce
Invalidation: Reclaim above $85 or strong streaming news
high
CL=F Futures or USO ETF
4-8 weeks
Oil showing momentum +0.28% today, energy sector leadership, geopolitical support
Key Levels: Support $62.50, Resistance $68.00, breakout above $66.50
medium
GC=F Futures or GLD ETF
6-10 weeks
Gold declining -0.31% today, well off highs at $5586. Dollar strength pressure, rate environment headwinds
Key Levels: Resistance $5200, Support $4950, breakdown below $5000
medium
4-8 weeks
2-3%
BTC showing slight momentum +0.44%, holding above key support. Institutional adoption continuing
On-Chain Signal: Long-term holders accumulating, exchange outflows
medium
3-6 weeks
2%
ETH outperforming BTC today +1.21%, showing relative strength. DeFi activity increasing
On-Chain Signal: ETH staking yields attractive, network utilization up
speculative
4-8 weeks
1-2%
SOL showing resilience despite -0.43% today, strong ecosystem development continuing
On-Chain Signal: TVL growth, memecoin activity on Solana
🚫 MSFT
Down -2.15% today, broken momentum, no clear catalyst for reversal
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' vs highs but showing relative weakness
🚫 GOOGL
Down -2.39% today, tech headwinds, regulatory overhang
The Trap: Attractive valuation but momentum is negative
🚫 ADBE
At 52-week lows, breaking down, no momentum catalyst
The Trap: Oversold bounce potential but trend is down