Pure Trade Ideas
2026-02-17 06:58
Regime
Mixed momentum - Tech under pressure but some sectors showing relative strength
Bias
Selective bullish - avoid weakness, ride strength. Sector rotation in progress
Best Setups
Enterprise software breakouts (CRM, ORCL), beaten down value with volume spikes (INTC), energy momentum
Avoid
Mega-cap tech showing distribution, anything breaking key support levels
📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas
CRM
LONG
high 4-8 weeks 3-4% portfolio
Breaking out from multi-week base at 52-week lows with +2.3% surge on heavy volume. Classic reversal breakout pattern with strong relative strength vs tech sector
Catalyst: Potential earnings beat next quarter, enterprise AI momentum, oversold bounce
Entry
$190-192 on any pullback to breakout level
Target
$220 (next resistance zone)
Stop
$182 (below breakout base)
R:R
3:1
Invalidation: Break back below $185 base support on heavy volume
ORCL
LONG
high 3-6 weeks 3% portfolio
Strong +2.3% move with volume spike, showing relative strength vs weak tech. Oracle breaking above resistance with database/cloud momentum
Catalyst: AI database wins, cloud partnerships, earnings momentum
Entry
$161-163 on any early weakness
Target
$180-185 (gap fill target)
Stop
$154 (below recent support)
R:R
2.5:1
Invalidation: Tech sector breakdown drags it lower despite relative strength
NVDA
SHORT
medium 2-4 weeks 2% portfolio
Failed at $212 highs, now breaking down with massive volume. Leading indicator showing AI trade weakness
Catalyst: Earnings disappointment fears, China trade tensions, AI bubble concerns
Entry
$180-182 on any bounce
Target
$160-165 (next major support)
Stop
$190 (above breakdown level)
R:R
2:1
Invalidation: Reclaim $190 with conviction and hold
INTC
LONG
speculative 6-12 weeks 2% portfolio
Massive volume spike +0.67% while sitting near multi-year lows. Potential turnaround story with foundry business momentum
Catalyst: Foundry deals, government chips act funding, new CPU launches
Entry
$47-48 on continued strength
Target
$55-58 (technical resistance)
Stop
$43 (recent lows)
R:R
2:1
Invalidation: Break below $43 confirms continued decline
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas
Crude Oil
LONG
medium USO ETF or CL futures 4-8 weeks
Breaking above $63 resistance with +0.73% move. Supply concerns and geopolitical tensions supporting
Entry
$63.50-64.00
Target
$68-70 (next resistance cluster)
Stop
$61.50 (below recent range)
R:R
2.5:1
Key Levels: Resistance: $65, $68, $70 | Support: $62, $59
Gold
SHORT
high GLD ETF or GC futures 3-6 weeks
Major breakdown from $5046 with -2.4% plunge. Failed at key resistance, now accelerating lower
Entry
$4920-4940 on any bounce
Target
$4700-4750 (major support zone)
Stop
$5050 (above breakdown level)
R:R
2:1
Key Levels: Key breakdown: $5000 | Support: $4800, $4700

Crypto Ideas

3 ideas
ETH
LONG
medium 3-6 weeks 2-3% allocation
Outperforming BTC with +0.86% vs BTC flat. Breaking above $1980 resistance with decent volume
On-Chain Signal: ETH/BTC ratio showing relative strength, staking rewards attracting capital
Entry
$1980-2000 on pullbacks
Target
$2200-2300 (next resistance zone)
Stop
$1900 (below recent support)
R:R
2.5:1
BNB
LONG
speculative 4-8 weeks 1-2% allocation
+2% move showing relative strength. Binance ecosystem benefits from crypto recovery
On-Chain Signal: Exchange volumes picking up, deflationary tokenomics supporting
Entry
$625-635 on strength
Target
$720-750 (major resistance)
Stop
$590 (below recent range)
R:R
2.8:1
SOL
LONG
medium 4-10 weeks 2% allocation
Solid +1.86% with momentum. Solana ecosystem showing development activity
On-Chain Signal: DEX volumes increasing, meme coin activity driving fees
Entry
$87-90 on any dips
Target
$110-120 (technical target)
Stop
$80 (key support level)
R:R
3:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
CRM
high
Long Call | $195 | March 21, 2026
Leverage the breakout momentum with defined risk. High IV from recent volatility
Max Risk
$8-12 per contract (premium paid)
Max Reward
Unlimited above $203-207 breakeven
Breakeven
$203-207 depending on premium
Ideal Scenario: Stock moves to $220+ within 4-6 weeks on earnings/guidance
NVDA
medium
Put Spread | Buy $175 Put, Sell $165 Put | March 21, 2026
Defined risk way to play breakdown with limited capital at risk
Max Risk
$3-4 per spread (net premium)
Max Reward
$6-7 per spread at max profit
Breakeven
$171-172
Ideal Scenario: NVDA continues decline to $165 or below by expiration
⚖️

Pairs Trades

2 pairs
high 1:1 dollar weighted 6-10 weeks
LONG
CRM
vs
SHORT
NVDA
CRM breaking out while NVDA breaking down. Enterprise software recovery vs AI chip concerns
Entry Spread
CRM $190 / NVDA $183 = spread of $7
Target Spread
$35-40 (CRM $220, NVDA $180-185)
Stop Spread
-$15 (if CRM fails and NVDA rallies)
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 4-8 weeks
LONG
ORCL
vs
SHORT
GOOGL
Oracle showing relative strength vs Google weakness. Database/cloud vs ad concerns
Entry Spread
ORCL $160 / GOOGL $306 = -$146 spread
Target Spread
-$120 to -$110
Stop Spread
-$160 (if reverses)
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 META
Down -1.5% and still 20% below highs. Could be dead cat bounce zone - avoid catching falling knife
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' but momentum is clearly negative
🚫 AAPL
Breaking down -2.3% and showing distribution. No momentum setup here
The Trap: Big name appeal but technically damaged
🚫 AMZN
Weak -0.4% and well below highs. No breakout pattern visible
The Trap: Cloud narrative but price action is unconvincing