Regime
Risk-on momentum with sector rotation into cyclicals and value
Bias
Bullish with selectivity - favor breakouts and relative strength
Best Setups
Tech breakouts (GOOGL), Industrial strength (XLI), Commodity momentum (Gold)
Avoid
Defensive healthcare, broken momentum stories, anything near 52-week lows without catalyst
high
2-4 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Breaking out with 4% gap on massive volume (52M vs 20M avg). Strong momentum after base building. AI narrative driving institutional buying.
Catalyst: Earnings momentum, AI product launches, cloud growth acceleration
Entry
$315.50 on pullback to breakout level or $320 on continuation
Stop
$302 (below previous resistance)
Invalidation: Close below $302 or broader tech selloff
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Making new 52-week highs at $177.23, up 0.5% on good volume. Industrial strength in Trump 2.0 infrastructure theme.
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending, manufacturing reshoring, defense contracts
Entry
$177.50 on breakout continuation
Stop
$173 (below previous high)
Invalidation: Break below $173 or economic slowdown fears
medium
4-8 weeks
2% of portfolio
Near 52-week highs at $43.56, up 0.8%. REITs benefiting from rate cut cycle and Trump policies.
Catalyst: Fed rate cuts, deregulation, commercial real estate recovery
Entry
$43.70 on new high break
Invalidation: Rising rates or commercial RE crisis
high
3-6 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Massive gap down -5.4% breaking key support. Volume spike confirms distribution. Breaking down from failed breakout.
Catalyst: Earnings disappointment, cloud competition, valuation concerns
Entry
$147 on bear flag or $145 on continuation
Stop
$155 (above breakdown level)
Invalidation: Recovery above $155 or broad tech rally
high
GLD ETF
6-12 weeks
Breaking higher +1.7% to $5080, strong momentum above $5000. Geopolitical risks, currency debasement fears driving institutional flows.
Entry
$5090-5100 on pullback or $5120 on breakout
Stop
$4950 (below round number support)
Key Levels: Support: $5000, $4950 | Resistance: $5200, $5400
medium
USO ETF or CL futures
4-8 weeks
Consolidating above $66 support, geopolitical premium building. Trump energy policies could support prices short-term.
Target
$72-74 (8-10% move)
Key Levels: Support: $66, $64 | Resistance: $70, $74
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2% of portfolio
Up 3.4% with strong volume, breaking above key resistance. DeFi narrative heating up, small cap momentum play.
On-Chain Signal: Volume spike indicates accumulation phase
medium
6-10 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Holding above $67k support, institutional demand steady. Trump crypto-friendly policies provide tailwind.
On-Chain Signal: Exchange outflows suggest hodling behavior
Target
$75,000-80,000 (12-15% move)
speculative
1-3 weeks
0.5-1% of portfolio
Memecoin momentum with +2.2% today, +12.7% weekly. Riding the meme cycle with tight risk management.
On-Chain Signal: Social sentiment spiking, whale accumulation
Entry
Current levels $4.31e-06
Target
$5.5e-06 (25% move)