Alpha Ideas
Index Analysis
Minor pullback in intact uptrend. 6800 support should hold for buyers.
Tech selling overdone. At critical 23241 level - bounce likely here.
Sector Rotation
Leadership: Technology (relative strength), Financials (near highs), Healthcare (defensive resilience)
Laggards: Real Estate (-0.91%), Materials (-0.83%), Industrials (-0.83%)
Signal: Money staying in growth/defensive quality, avoiding cyclicals and rate-sensitives
Rationale: Tech leading from 86.22 lows, only -5.9% from highs vs other sectors deeper
Risk: Broader market breakdown below 6750 S&P
Stock Signals
At $186.50, holding above $180 support. Massive momentum from $86.62 lows.
Catalyst: CES 2026 AI announcements, Q4 earnings late Jan
Risk/Reward: Risk to $180, reward to $220+ - excellent 3:1 setup
Pullback to $449 from $498 highs creating entry. Musk factor + EV momentum
Catalyst: Q4 deliveries, FSD progress, robotaxi updates
Risk/Reward: Risk to $420, target $500+ - strong momentum stock
At $660, well off $796 highs but above key $600 support. Needs catalyst
Catalyst: Q4 earnings, AI monetization updates
Risk/Reward: Range-bound until breakout above $700
Crypto Alpha
Bitcoin $88,809 +1.5% showing strength. Key support $85K, resistance $95K
Ethereum $3020 +1.5% following BTC higher. Watch $3200 breakout level
SOL +1.89%, ADA +6.54%, DOT +12.17% - altcoin momentum building
Contrarian Corner
The Consensus vs. The Counter
Risk Radar
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Hedge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 earnings disappointments | MEDIUM | 10-15% correction in growth stocks | VIX calls or QQQ puts with Feb expiry |
| Fed hawkish pivot | LOW | Major growth stock selloff | Long TLT, short growth duration plays |