📊

MarketPulse

Alpha Intelligence
Friday, February 13, 2026
07:01 EST
Regime 🔴

Risk Off

2-4 weeks of consolidation/correction likely

VIX spiked +18% to 20.82; Broad selloff: SPX -1.57%, NDX -2.03%, RUT -2.01%; Tech leadership breaking down: XLK -2.63%

85%
Confidence
^GSPC 6,832.76 -1.57%
^DJI 49,451.98 -1.34%
^IXIC 22,597.15 -2.03%
^RUT 2,615.83 -2.01%
^VIX 20.82 +17.96%
^FTSE 10,402.44 -0.67%
^N225 56,941.97 -1.21%
XLK 139.21 -2.63%
XLF 51.69 -1.99%
XLV 156.00 -0.16%
XLE 53.98 -1.82%
XLI 172.75 -1.20%
⚡

Alpha Ideas

Short NFLX against 52-week low breakdown
high conviction weeks
Testing critical $75.23 support with massive volume. Streaming wars intensifying, growth slowing
Entry
Short on break below $75 with tight stop at $78
Target
Target $65-68, stop $78
Sizing
2-3% position given tight stop
Long ADBE on relative strength breakout
medium conviction weeks
Only major tech stock green today. AI integration story intact, enterprise resilience
Entry
Buy on pullback to $260 or break above $270
Target
Target $285-290, stop $250
Sizing
3-4% position
📈

Index Analysis

SP500 bearish

Breaking below 6900 with volume, now 2.4% from highs. Momentum deteriorating.

Support 6700, 6600
Resistance 6941, 7000
NASDAQ bearish

Leading the decline at -2.03%. Tech rotation accelerating lower.

Support 22000, 21500
Resistance 23066, 24000
🔄

Sector Rotation

Leadership: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.92%), Utilities (XLU +1.48%), Healthcare (XLV -0.16%)

Laggards: Technology (XLK -2.63%), Financials (XLF -1.99%), Energy (XLE -1.82%)

Signal: Classic risk-off rotation into defensive sectors. Money fleeing growth/cyclicals

Long XLP / Short XLK

Rationale: Staples gaining while tech craters. Defensive rotation accelerating

Risk: If market bounces, this unwinds fast

🎯

Stock Signals

AAPL bearish

Massive -5% decline breaks $270 support. Heaviest volume in weeks

Catalyst: Potential guidance revision or iPhone concerns

Risk/Reward: More downside to $240-250 range likely

NFLX bearish

Testing 52-week low at $75.23. -4.73% today on massive volume

Catalyst: Streaming competition intensifying, subscriber growth concerns

Risk/Reward: Could break to $65-70 if support fails

ADBE bullish

Only tech stock green +2.08%. Relative strength leader breaking out

Catalyst: AI integration driving margins higher

Risk/Reward: Target $280-290 if momentum continues

CRM watch

Flat performance shows relative strength vs tech peers

Catalyst: Enterprise software resilience in downturn

Risk/Reward: Watch for break above $190 for momentum play

₿

Crypto Alpha

Bitcoin

Bitcoin at $66,240 (-1.21%) failing to hold $67K. Target $62K-64K support zone

Ethereum

Ethereum at $1,935 (-1.77%) weaker than BTC. Risk of test to $1,800-1,850

Alt Rotation

Most alts declining harder than majors. HYPE (-12.6%) and SOL showing relative weakness

🔮

Contrarian Corner

The Consensus vs. The Counter

Consensus View
Analyzing market consensus...
Contrarian Case
Building contrarian thesis...
Trigger to Watch
Identifying confirmation signals...
⚠️

Risk Radar

Risk Probability Impact Hedge
Tech earnings disappointments accelerating selloff MEDIUM Could drive NDX to 21,000-21,500 range Long XLP/XLU vs Short XLK spread
Credit market stress if tech continues falling LOW Could trigger broader financial contagion Long TLT, reduce risk assets
👁️

Weekly Watchlist

NFLX
Watch for: Break below $75.23 52-week low
Action: Short with $78 stop, target $65-68
AAPL
Watch for: Any bounce to $270-275 resistance
Action: Short the bounce, expecting retest of $250
XLP
Watch for: Continuation of breakout above $89.50
Action: Add to long position, target $92-93
VIX
Watch for: Move above 22-23 level
Action: Increase hedges, reduce equity exposure
BTC
Watch for: Break below $64K support
Action: Short with stops at $67K, target $58K-60K