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MarketPulse

Alpha Intelligence
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
06:59 EST
Regime 🟡

Transitional

2-4 weeks as market navigates between defensive positioning and risk-on rotations

Russell 2000 +1.18% outpacing SPY +0.05% - classic risk-on rotation; Utilities +2.76% leading sectors - defensive bid remains; VIX spike to 21.2 (+1.83%) despite modest gains - volatility expansion

75%
Confidence
^GSPC 6,836.17 +0.05%
^DJI 49,500.93 +0.10%
^IXIC 22,546.67 -0.22%
^RUT 2,646.70 +1.18%
^VIX 21.20 +1.83%
^FTSE 10,473.69 +0.26%
^N225 56,566.49 -0.42%
XLK 139.56 +0.25%
XLF 51.65 -0.08%
XLV 157.67 +1.07%
XLE 54.35 +0.69%
XLI 174.17 +0.82%
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Alpha Ideas

Long Utilities (XLU) breakout momentum
high conviction weeks
XLU breaking 52-week highs at $46.50, defensive rotation accelerating, dividend appeal in volatile environment
Entry
Current levels $46.50, add on pullback to $46.00
Target
Target $48.50 (+4%), stop $45.25
Sizing
3-5% position - defensive allocation
CRM momentum long
high conviction weeks
Bouncing from 52-week lows with volume, oversold relief in quality tech name
Entry
$189-192 range on any pullback
Target
Target $210 (+10%), stop $182
Sizing
2-3% position - momentum play
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Index Analysis

SP500 neutral

Grinding higher but momentum waning - 97.7% of 52-week high suggests limited upside room

Support 6800, 6750
Resistance 6850, 7000
NASDAQ bearish

Underperforming with -0.22% decline while showing negative divergence - 93.9% of high concerning

Support 22400, 22000
Resistance 22800, 24000
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Sector Rotation

Leadership: Utilities (+2.76%), Healthcare (+1.07%), Industrials (+0.82%)

Laggards: Communication Services (-0.05%), Financials (-0.08%), Technology (+0.25%)

Signal: Defensive sectors leading while growth lags - suggests institutional caution

Long XLU / Short XLC

Rationale: Utilities breaking to new highs at $46.50 vs 52-week high $46.89 while Comm Services stalling

Risk: Interest rate cuts could reverse this defensive rotation quickly

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Stock Signals

CRM bullish

Breaking above $189 with +2.31% momentum, just above 52-week low $180.24

Catalyst: Oversold bounce with strong volume 14.8M

Risk/Reward: Excellent - limited downside, potential to $210+

ORCL bullish

+2.34% with volume, showing relative strength after massive selloff from $345 high

Catalyst: Cloud infrastructure demand, AI positioning

Risk/Reward: Good at $160 - major support tested, room to $180

NVDA watch

Down -2.24% to $182.78, holding above psychological $180 support

Catalyst: Earnings season positioning, AI spending trends

Risk/Reward: Risky - could break to $170 or bounce to $195

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Crypto Alpha

Bitcoin

BTC consolidating at $68,411 near resistance - watch $70K break for continuation to $75K

Ethereum

ETH at $1,981 (+0.86%) showing relative strength vs BTC, target $2,100 resistance

Alt Rotation

SOL (+1.85%) and XRP (+0.95%) leading altcoin bounce

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Contrarian Corner

The Consensus vs. The Counter

Consensus View
Analyzing market consensus...
Contrarian Case
Building contrarian thesis...
Trigger to Watch
Identifying confirmation signals...
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Risk Radar

Risk Probability Impact Hedge
VIX expansion above 25 triggering systematic selling MEDIUM 5-10% market correction, growth stocks -15%+ Long VIX calls, short QQQ, long defensive sectors
Russell 2000 momentum failure below 2600 LOW Risk-off rotation, small cap underperformance Rotate to mega-cap quality, reduce small cap exposure
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Weekly Watchlist

XLU
Watch for: Hold above $46.25 support
Action: Continues higher - add to position, breaks support - take profits
QQQ
Watch for: Break below $510 support
Action: Breakdown confirmed - short technology, rotate to defensives
IWM
Watch for: Russell momentum continuation above $2650
Action: Breakout - add small cap exposure, failure - reduce risk assets
VIX
Watch for: Break above 23 resistance
Action: Volatility expansion - hedge portfolios, reduce leverage